Predicting Hurricane Helene
Instructions: Scroll to progress through Time. Click and drag on the globe to rotate. Use the mouse wheel to zoom in and out.
The 2024 Hurricane Season
From Mid August to Mid October alone, the Atlantic basin experienced 6 named hurricanes, from Tropical Storms to Category 5s. You've already explored half of the season.
Hurricanes are complex systems influenced by many factors, making accurate predictions challenging yet crucial for preparedness and response.
Enter Hurricane Helene
We’ll walk through three forecasting challenges using Hurricane Helene. Click to skip to any challenge.
You’ll make predictions — just like real forecasters. By having you try to make predictions yourself, the granularity and fidelity of satellite weather data can be explored through the lens of hurricane preparedness.
Challenge 1: Intensity
Helene was initially expected to be a manageable storm. But in the warm waters of the Gulf, something changed.
A hurricane’s rainfall rate — its intensity — is one of the hardest things to forecast. Below is Helene’s early rainfall trend over Florida.
Your Turn
When do you think Helene’s max rainfall will exceed 50 mm/hr (threshold for "violent" rainfall) in Florida?
Use the ruler to make a data-informed prediction. Click on the timeline to lock in your guess.
The Reality
That sudden jump is rapid intensification: when a storm grows stronger much faster than expected.
For coastal communities, those hours can mean the difference between a routine storm and a disaster.
BUT without continuous, high-resolution satellite data, we don’t see this jump clearly — or we see it too late.
Challenge 2: Track
Next: forecasting where a hurricane will go. Here's an approximate center of the storm. Can you guys the path of the storm over the next 36 hours? Click anywhere on the map to cast your prediction.
The true path is shown in red and your predictions are shown in pink!
Try Again!
Try visualizing wind speed and
direction by toggling the button in the top right. Does that
help your prediction?
Experts use many variables like storm structure, oceanic conditions, and atomospheric conditions to update their advanced statistical models. They update their predictions in realtime to inform emergency managers and the public.
Your final shot!
How did you do?
How did your guess compare to the official track over 36 hours? We have also displayed the predicted path by experts in white, starting just 3hrs before you starting forecasting yourself.
Expert prediction data provided by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch.Challenge 3: Emergency Resource Allocation
Forecasts matter only when translated into decisions. You are now the emergency manager.
Helene is approaching. You have limited resources to protect Florida's regions.
Make Your Decisions
Allocate Rainfall Mitigation Units and Wind Impact Units.
Use the sidebar to distribute your resources. Watch the globe for feedback.
Rain Units Left: 100
Wind Units Left: 100
The Storm Arrives
Helene makes landfall. How did your preparation hold up?
Preparedness Score: 0/100
Reflection
Even with data, uncertainty persists. Limited resources and time pressure make every decision critical.
This exercise shows why data infrastructure matters: more sensors mean more time, better decisions, and fewer casualties.
Takeaway
Now that Helene has passed, there’s one thing to remember…
Preparedness relies as much on data infrastructure as on physical infrastructure.
Investing in weather sensors, satellites, and data pipelines creates time to act — and saves lives.
Summary
We explored three key aspects of hurricane response:
- Intensity: Predicting rainfall spikes.
- Track: Forecasting the storm's path.
- Decisions: Allocating resources under uncertainty.
We hope this experience gave you a better appreciation for the challenges meteorologists and emergency managers face every day.
What kind of infrastructure exists to keep people safe?
Various infrastructures, such as early warning systems, evacuation routes, and resilient buildings, are in place to protect communities from hurricane impacts. These systems rely on accurate data and forecasts to function effectively.
We used real climate data from NOAA GOES16 to power this visualization! It is a low-orbiting satelite that provides continuous high-resolution data. This is just one example of the infrastructures in place to monitor and respond to hurricanes.